New Opportunities Model for Monitoring, Analyzing and Forecasting the Official Statistics on Coronavirus Disease Pandemic

At the beginning of 2020, it became obvious that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will have a fairly significant scale and duration. There was an unmet need for the analysis and forecast of the development of events. The forecast was needed to make the managerial decisions in terms of knowledge on the dynamics of the pandemic, considering and analyzing the incoming official statistics about the pandemic, modeling and predicting the behavior of this statistics. Due to the objective and subjective factors, the available statistics is far from the unknown true data regarding the pandemic. Therefore, strictly speaking, it was necessary to model and predict not the dynamics of the pandemic, but the dynamics of the official (i.e. government) statistics on the pandemic. This paper proposes a new model, referred to as the new opportunities model, to monitor, analyze and forecast the government statistics on COVID-19 pandemic. A modeling approach is offered in this regard. The modeling approach is important as it answers simple questions on what awaits us in the near future, which is the current phase of the pandemic and when all this will be over. The new opportunities model is applied to three different countries in terms of area, economy and population, namely Russia, Romania and Moldova, plus the Campania region in Italy, and proves to be efficient over other similar models including the classical Susceptible-Infected (SI) model. © 2023, Publishing House of the Romanian Academy. All rights reserved.

Official statistics: Quo vadis?

The data revolution has resulted in discussions in the statistical community on the future of official statistics. Will official statistics survive as a brand, or will such statistics drown in the flow of data and statistics from new sources and actors, including misused statistics and fake news? The COVID-19 pandemic has been an additional driver for discussion. There is a need to maintain the quality of official statistics and highlight the value of such statistics for the users as a basis for – and supplement to – other statistics and information. It is at the same time important to implement new developments to improve and keep up the relevance of official statistics. Key pillars today are statistical legislation, quality frameworks and core values defining requirements for official statistics. Possibilities are linked to new statistics, use of new data sources and possible extended roles of the statistical institutes within coordination, collaboration, and data stewardship. The paper addresses these issues in the light of trends in official statistics since the UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics were formulated about 30 years ago. Quality challenges for statistics and dilemmas in defining the roles of statistical institutes are considered. The paper includes examples from Statistics Norway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Statistical Journal of the IAOS is the property of IOS Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Overview of the use of big data for official statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean

In 2020 and 2021, the challenges related to the decline in the financing of statistical production and the cooperation of respondents was exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. This scenario led national statistical offices (NSOs) to accelerate consideration of alternative data sources to complement or even replace traditional survey data. In this context, the use of big data to produce statistics has become promising. The use of big data for statistics is already in practice in many parts of the Global North and has also been spreading rapidly in the South. Part of the success of this trend is due to the support of the United Nations Committee of Experts on Big Data and Data Science for Official Statistics (UNCEBD), in particular its four Regional Hubs for Big Data. To learn the extent of the use of big data for official statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean, the United Nations Regional Hub for Big Data in Brazil conducted a study of the practices of NSOs in the region. A very promising scenario was found regarding the use of big data from satellite imagery, web scraping and other big data sources, for applications such as the production of price statistics, land use and cover patterns and migration. [ FROM AUTHOR]

The French National Council for Statistical Information: Lessons from a formal dialogue between producers and users on sustainable development

Focusing on the French National Council for Statistical Information (Cnis), this paper offers an overview on the value and strength of the dialogue between producers and users of official statistics in France. Highlighting its specific contribution to shape official statistics in relation to sustainable development, it presents its role and original value added in the French context on a critical issue for the post-COVID era. If this case study proposes lessons to learn from this experience, its history, and transformation over time, it wants also to point out promising evolutions and paths for the future. In a context of crisis and pandemic, the need to produce quality and timely statistics adapted to the situation has showed its capacity to adapt and to confirm its critical role. [ FROM AUTHOR]

Single‐month unemployment rate estimates for the Brazilian Labour Force Survey using state‐space models

The Brazilian Labour Force Survey publishes monthly national indicators based on 3-month rolling data. This paper presents state-space models to produce state-level single-month unemployment rate estimates. The models account for sampling errors and the increased dynamics in the labour force series due to the unforeseen SARS-COV-2 pandemic. Bivariate time series models with claimant count auxiliary data and multivariate models combining survey data of several states are investigated. The results demonstrated the benefits of the univariate state-space approach to produce unemployment official statistics for Brazil. Additionally, the regional multivariate model shows promising results but requires further investigation.

The French official statistics strategy: Combining signaling data from various mobile network operators for documenting COVID-19 crisis effects on population movements and economic outlook

During the COVID-19 crisis, the French National institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) used aggregated and anonymous counting indicators based on network signaling data of three of the four mobile network operators (MNOs) in France to measure the distribution of population over the territory during and after the lockdown and to enrich the toolbox of high-frequency economic indicators used to follow the economic situation. INSEE's strategy was to combine information coming from different MNOs together with the national population estimates it usually produces in order to get more reliable statistics and to measure uncertainty. This paper relates and situates this initiative within the long-term methodological collaborations between INSEE and different MNOs, and INSEE, Eurostat, and some other European national statistical institutes (NSIs). These collaborations aim at constructing experimental official statistics on the population present in a given place and at a given time, from mobile phone data (MPD). The COVID-19 initiative has confirmed that more methodological investments are needed to increase relevance of and trust in these data. We suggest this methodological work should be done in close collaboration between NSIs, MNOs, and research, to construct the most reliable statistical processes. This work requires exploiting raw data, so the research and statistical exemptions present in the general data protection regulation (GDPR) should be introduced as well in the new e-privacy regulation. We also raise the challenges of articulating commercial and public interest rationales and articulating transparency and commercial secrets requirements. Finally, it elaborates on the role NSIs can play in the MPD valorization ecosystem.

Official statistics: Providing data acumen in the advent and continuous presence of COVID-19

COVID-19 has disturbed people’s patterns of life and sources of income, particularly the income of informal sector business operators and households worldwide. As extraordinary policy initiatives are calibrated, the requirement for timely statistics on health and economic development rises. Thus, the purpose of this research is to analyze the Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) available to Nigerian states in 2020 and 2019 by examining the disparities caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the country’s approximately 200 million people. The exploratory research approach was used, with a particular emphasis on descriptive and trend analysis of the data acquired during the study periods. According to the findings, 46% of Nigerian states, including the Federal Capital Territory, suffered reductions in IGR generation as the pandemic surged, whereas 35 per cent of the states experienced a corresponding increase in IGR and confirmed COVID-19 infections. However, 16% of the states reported an inverse growth in their IGR as the number of verified COVID-19 cases decreased. To deal with the unprecedented shocks caused by the ongoing existence of COVID-19, which necessitate the tapping of new information and revenue streams, a continual review of countries’ revenue sources is required. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Statistical Journal of the IAOS is the property of IOS Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Economic support to European households in the aftermath of COVID-19. A cross-country comparative analysis based on quarterly sector accounts

In response to the COVID-19 outbreak, governments in European countries adopted a wide range of containment measures to prevent the spread of the virus. These measures led to unprecedented short-term economic loss for national economies, to which governments responded with support measures targeting both households and businesses. In this article, we argue that official statistics are a key source for robust comparisons of the economic impact of COVID-19 and subsequent support measures across countries. In particular, we use Eurostat’s quarterly non-financial sector accounts and supplementary information provided by countries to estimate and compare the support received by households in 18 European countries. We focus our analysis on the second and third quarter of 2020, when national economies in Europe were impacted mostly by the containment measures. The results show some heterogeneity in the type and extent of support provided. Interestingly, while in some countries support interventions were far from making up for the loss of income, in others they far outweighed it. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Statistical Journal of the IAOS is the property of IOS Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

SODA-Stream: SDN Optimization for Enhancing QoE in DASH Streaming

Official statistics indicate that internet users all around the world watch more videos and play more games during the COVID-19 pandemic than at any time [18]. This unprecedented, challenging situation demands solutions to accommodate rapid growth while maintaining and/or enhancing the video quality. This paper proposes SODA-Stream, an SDN-based optimization framework for enhancing Quality-of-Experience (QoE) in DASH streaming. The optimization framework max-imizes the number of concurrent streaming sessions that can be accommodated in a network and maximize streaming quality. The practical implementation of the framework utilizes the dynamic routing and bandwidth allocation enabled by Software Defined Networking (SDN). The evaluation results show that SODA-Stream significantly outperforms the conventional network routing and resource allocation algorithms, accepting 52% more sessions, 45% improvement in bandwidth allocation, and 70% reduction in bandwidth wastage, smoother playback, and better viewing experience. © 2022 IEEE.

Unfinished Farewell

As COVID-19 spreads across the globe and the number of deaths continues to rise, the heartbreaking experiences are being replaced by collective mourning. As German journalist and pacifist Kurt Tukholsky once said: "The death of one man is a tragedy, the death of millions is a statistic". When we look back at the help-seeking posts of those who were lost, those who died of unconfirmed COVID-19 testing reports;those who committed suicide out of despair;those whose life-saving medical equipment were being taken away and those who lost their lives due to overwork and infection from their patients... Many of them were not included in the official statistics, and they are likely to be forgotten over time. They were not being treated fairly when they were alive, and they were not being mentioned after they passed away. We spoke to one of those families. One daughter said: "After this pandemic, who will remember someone such as my mother-she had nowhere to go for medical treatment;she was rejected by the hospital, and she had to die at home?"This is one of the reasons why we built this online platform. We want to document as many people who have left us because of the pandemic as possible. Our website also includes the help-seeking information these people posted before they passed away. These are the evidences they have left in a particular moment in this pandemic. We hope to provide a space for family members to express their grief and for the public to mourn the dead. Behind every number is a life. "Unfinished Farewell"can be viewed at www.farewell.care and www.jiabaoli.org/covid19 © 2022 Owner/Author.

Innovation during the COVID-19 crisis: Why it was more critical for official statistics than ever1

During the COVID-19 pandemic, quantitative evidence was desperately needed in order to understand and manage an unprecedented situation, and to make important national, European and international decisions. Eurostat and the national statistical institutes (NSIs) played a key role in managing the pandemic, providing society with a high quality statistical information service. In particular, the crisis accelerated innovation in statistical production, steered complex processes of change towards the use of new data sources and privately held data for official statistics, enhanced the adoption of new statistical methods, and consequently the production of experimental statistics and dashboards.While the new data ecosystem provided opportunities for the production of official statistics, the importance of privacy preservation, data security and the development of adequate data quality frameworks remained a priority. Important strands of work for the future would be: satisfying the increased needs of users, as well as supporting decision-making and the delivery of government services in emergencies. NSIs would also do well to invest in innovation, collaborate and establish partnerships with the data providers and research communities that have worked closely with them since the beginning of the pandemic. This article is based on the experiences of six NSIs in the Netherlands, Spain, France, Italy, Germany and Finland during the pandemic. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Statistical Journal of the IAOS is the property of IOS Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Sensing pedestrian flows for real-time assessment of non-pharmaceutical policy interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Introduction: To combat and mitigate the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, reducing the number of social contacts within a population is highly effective. Non-pharmaceutical policy interventions, e.g. stay-at-home orders, closing schools, universities, and (non-essential) businesses, are expected to decrease pedestrian flows in public areas, leading to reduced social contacts. The extent to which such interventions show the targeted effect is often measured retrospectively by surveying behavioural changes. Approaches that use data generated through mobile phones are hindered by data confidentiality and privacy regulations and complicated by selection effects. Furthermore, access to such sensitive data is limited. However, a complex pandemic situation requires a fast evaluation of the effectiveness of the introduced interventions aiming to reduce social contacts. Location-based sensor systems installed in cities, providing objective measurements of spatial mobility in the form of pedestrian flows, are suited for such a purpose. These devices record changes in a population's behaviour in real-time, do not have privacy problems as they do not identify persons, and have no selection problems due to ownership of a device. Objective: This work aimed to analyse location-based sensor measurements of pedestrian flows in 49 metropolitan areas at 100 locations in Germany to study whether such technology is suitable for the real-time assessment of behavioural changes during a phase of several different pandemic-related policy interventions. Methods: Spatial mobility data of pedestrian flows was linked with policy interventions using the date as a unique linkage key. Data was visualised to observe potential changes in pedestrian flows before or after interventions. Furthermore, differences in time series of pedestrian counts between the pandemic and the pre-pandemic year were analysed. Results: The sensors detected changes in mobility patterns even before policy interventions were enacted. Compared to the pre-pandemic year, pedestrian counts were 85% lower. Conclusions: The study illustrated the practical value of sensor-based real-time measurements when linked with non-pharmaceutical policy intervention data. This study's core contribution is that the sensors detected behavioural changes before enacting or loosening non-pharmaceutical policy interventions. Therefore, such technologies should be considered in the future by policymakers for crisis management and policy evaluation.

Effect of vaccination as impediment on spread of COVID-19

The research project was conducted to probe into the vaccine's impact on the cataphoresis of COVID-19. The data involved in the project was based on official statistics from different states of the United States. The project intended to ascertain the correlations between the number of positive cases and the number of fully vaccinated populations. Also, the project includes identifying correlations between other variables like the links between the number of fully vaccinated people and the change in time. Moreover, the research project briefly studied pandemic prevention policies and outcomes in the state Connecticut. As a result of analysis, it indicated that virus spread increasingly slowed down when the fully vaccinated population reached a critical proportion with the rise in the vaccinated population. However, the necessary proportion varied from state to state. For state Connecticut, first-dose vaccination of the governor Lamont may encourage the local public to vaccinate, leading to a surge in the number of people vaccinated after Lamont's action. Therefore, it is simply inferred that vaccines play an important role in fighting against coronavirus and that the action of leaders is speculated to be influential for the public's attitude toward vaccines. © 2021 ACM.